By Kevin Hendricks — After months of TV ads, mailers and text messages across southern New Mexico, voters in the 2nd Congressional District gave U.S. Rep. Gabe Vasquez a third term, and it wasn’t close.
Vasquez, a Las Cruces Democrat, beat Republican Greg Cunningham 59% to 41% on Tuesday, according to unofficial results from the New Mexico Secretary of State. With all 663 precincts reporting, Vasquez had 123,113 votes to Cunningham’s 86,650, a margin of 36,463.
The price per vote
Donors and political action committees spent or promised at least $21.8 million on the race. That works out to about $104 for every one of the 209,763 ballots cast in the race.
Vasquez raised $5.5 million, more than double Cunningham’s $2.5 million, according to Federal Election Commission filings through Oct. 14. Vasquez’s campaign spent about $41 for every vote he received, and Cunningham’s spent about $25.
The outside game
The biggest money didn’t come from the candidates. PACs accounted for about $14.1 million, mostly TV, digital and text-message ads.
On the right, the Congressional Leadership Fund spent more than $3.8 million against Vasquez, according to the Santa Fe New Mexican. No Going Back, backed by Trump’s MAGA Inc., spent at least $1.4 million. Cunningham’s campaign said PACs would spend at least $8.8 million on his behalf by Election Day.
On the left, groups including the Public Lands Warriors Fund and Workers En Accion spent more than $5.5 million boosting Vasquez or attacking Cunningham, according to Source NM.
The final stretch tilted hard toward Vasquez. Outside groups reported about $3.1 million in spending against Cunningham from Oct. 15 through Oct. 29, FEC filings show. Groups opposing Vasquez reported about $78,000 over the same stretch. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker’s Ready for the Fight PAC led the late push with nearly $2 million.
Bigger than the polls
The margin outran the preelection polling. An October Research & Polling survey had Vasquez up 48% to 44%, inside the 5-point margin of error. CD2 was one of a handful of Democratic-held seats President Donald Trump carried in 2024, and Vasquez first won it in 2022 by less than a percentage point.
County canvass boards will certify the results before the state canvassing board makes them official. Post-election finance reports, due Dec. 3, will show how much each side spent in the race’s final three weeks.
BY THE NUMBERS
- Vasquez (D): 123,113 votes (59%)
- Cunningham (R): 86,650 votes (41%)
- Margin: 36,463 votes
- Total ballots cast in the race: 209,763
- $21.8 million: total spent or pledged in the race (Source NM)
- About $104: spending per ballot cast
- $14.1 million: PAC independent expenditures
- Vasquez, through Oct. 14: $5,518,618 raised | $5,060,722 spent
- Cunningham, through Oct. 14: $2,527,072 raised | $2,183,325 spent
- Outside spending, Oct. 15-29: $3,135,767 against Cunningham | $77,522 against Vasquez
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