The candidates in New Mexico’s most contested Congressional race of 2026 are getting a head start on the November General Election matchup after Republican Jose Orozco ended his primary campaign, but with voter registration data showing voters fleeing both major parties, the race is shaping up to be a fight for the independent voter.
After Jose Orozco from Albuquerque’s Westside decided to drop out of the race, Greg G. Cunningham will likely carry the Republican flag against Democrat incumbent Gabe Vasquez in the General Election. Orozco’s exit was too late to have his name removed from the ballot.
As of April 30, the district has 447,570 registered voters, according to the Office of the Secretary of State. Democrats lead with 170,857 voter registrations, 6,195 fewer than in 2024 when Vasquez overcame a challenge from Yvette Herrell and down 7,557 since Vasquez flipped the seat for Democrats by ousting Herrell in a tight recount in 2022.
Republicans, for their part, are also entering election season with fewer partisan voters. 140,582 CD2 voters are registered as Republicans as of Apr. 30, down from 141,691 in 2024 and 129,296 in 2022.
New Mexico redistricting that took effect in 2022 added Albuquerque’s Westside, which traditionally had been part of southern New Mexico. The Cook Political Report ranks CD2 as “lean democrat” for 2026.
The dark horse in the race is the 136,131 voters registered as Libertarian, independent or declined-to-state voters, a group that could swing the race in November.
The Democratic registration advantage has shrunk since voters first elected Vasquez in November 2022, when there were 178,414 registered Democrats, according to the Office of the Secretary of State. By November 2024, he was reelected by more than 11,000 votes, receiving 138,177 votes compared to Republican challenger Yvette Herrell’s 127,145. The Democratic registration number dropped to 177,052. Since 2024, the downward trend has continued with about a 3% drop in Democratic registrations, while Republicans and Libertarian, independent or declined-to-state voters continue to gain ground.
The registration numbers show that CD-2 isn’t catching the same blue wave as the rest of the state. While Democrats in CD-1 and CD-3 are sitting on comfortable leads, the cushion in CD-2 has become smaller. With the party base shrinking and independent voters on the rise, this race may be a toss-up rather than a sure thing.