By Jesse Jones
At the March 4 Corrales Village Council meeting, Jason Casuga, Chief Engineer/CEO of the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD), warned that the region faces one of its driest years on record, with March forecasts showing river flows at just 36% of normal.
The New Mexico Water Supply Outlook Report for February and March by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service paints a bleak picture for the state’s water basins. Snowpack conditions—already low in February—further declined in March, diminishing hopes for a strong runoff season.
“It is going to be, at least from a river flow standpoint, a very difficult year, and will need rain for agriculture in the whole valley, let alone Corrales, to thrive,” Casuga said.
Casuga said the March water forecast for the Rio Chama-Upper Rio Grande river flow was downgraded from 51% below median precipitation to just 36%, the lowest he has seen in his career.
A National Integrated Drought Information System summary described the snowpack for New Mexico and Arizona as “abysmal.” However, the report noted that the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s outlook favors a colder, wetter pattern in the West over the next month, which could improve snow accumulation.
According to Casuga, even if it rains further north, he may not be able to divert the water unless the river rises enough to run the pumps. More rain upstream improves the chances of sustaining pumping, but storage remains an issue.
Despite securing an alternate storage location at Abiquiú through a partnership with the Bureau of Reclamation and Albuquerque Bernalillo County Water Authority, Casuga made it clear that New Mexico’s status under the Rio Grande Compact prevents the storage of native water.
The Rio Grande Compact, an interstate water agreement between Colorado, New Mexico, and Texas, regulates how much water New Mexico can store and release. Due to the state’s current compact obligations, MRGCD cannot store runoff from rainfall or snowmelt from the Rio Grande drainage basin.
On El Vado Dam rehabilitation, Casuga said progress will be slow, but the new storage location at Abiquiú helps. While space is no longer a limiting factor, the compact remains a barrier. He estimated the San Juan-Chama allocation at about 60% of normal, or between 10,000 and 12,000 acre-feet, but the final figure is uncertain.
“One of our biggest challenges that we need to now turn our attention to as a state,” Casuga said. “Is the Rio Grande Compact and making sure that the whole valley in the whole state knows satisfying the Rio Grande compact is a conservation measure for all of our missions on the river, be it agriculture, be it environment, be it municipality, we’ve got to start satisfying the compact.”
As New Mexico heads into a critically dry year, Casuga encouraged farmers to visit the MRGCD.com website for resources on improving irrigation efficiency to make the most of available water. He hoped rainfall could extend the irrigation season, but the overall outlook remains uncertain.