Will New Mexico’s redrawn Congressional districts present better odds for Republicans to execute a surprise pickup seat? At least two Republicans who previously lost races in the old districts are betting that they can oust incumbent Representative Melanie Stansbury in the state’s new Democratic-favored 1st Congressional District.
Steve Jones, a 77-year old Army veteran and energy executive from Ruidoso previously ran and lost a 2nd District write-in campaign for Congress in 2020. As a write-in, he advocated for a $15 federal minimum wage (higher than New Mexico’s current rate) and retraining oil industry workers for a post-hydrocarbon economy. Redrawn district boundaries now place Ruidoso and Jones in the 1st District.
South Valley Republican Louie Sanchez, not to be confused with Westside Albuquerque’s Democrat City Councilor of the same name, is making another attempt at elected office. He lost to Michelle Garcia Holmes in the 2022 Republican primary for the former NM-01 Congressional seat and also campaigned briefly for the Republican nomination for governor in 2022.
Sanchez’s website promotes him as a conservative personality “on Fox News and speaking at numerous rallies and gatherings throughout the state.” He “believes that all our lives and livelihoods are essential, that our fundamental rights to support our families and practice our traditional way of life should be safeguarded.”
Of New Mexico’s three Congressional districts, the first has traditionally been the “Albuquerque district.” Drawn to keep most of Albuquerque in one district for the last two decades, New Mexico’s most urban voters sent local Democratic leaders Martin Heinrich and Deb Haaland to Congress before electing former Democrat State Rep. Melanie Stansbury to the federal seat following Haaland’s confirmation to serve as President Biden’s Secretary of Interior in 2021.
But in 2022, decennial redistricting shuffled the district lines and created a new first district stretching from Sandia Pueblo north of Albuquerque to Roswell and Ruidoso. While Albuquerque has been trending more blue, southeast New Mexico has been trending more red — but the population density between those political divisive areas aren’t evenly matched. Residents of Bernalillo County, which votes more reliably blue, vastly outnumber residents of the districts other 5 counties. Cook Political Report ranks the district “Solid Democrat” in 2024.
CD-1’s 152,000 registered Republicans are outnumbered by the district’s 202,000 registered Democrats. Libertarian and independent voters make up another 120,000 registered voters who are more tightly clustered in Bernalillo County. That math makes any Republican challenge to the incumbent Stansbury an uphill battle.
Stansbury reported raising more than $424,000 for her reelection and had $135,000 on hand at the end of September. Jones had not declared or reported any fundraising as of that filing deadline. Sanchez announced his campaign in January and has not yet appeared on the list of federal candidates for office.
Democrat, Republican and Libertarian primaries are set for June 4, 2024. Winners of each will face off in the November general election.