The biggest surprise from the Iowa Republican primary caucus was not that the winner was former President Donald Trump. It was that otherwise lackluster contender Ron DeSantis came from behind and finished a solid second ahead of Nikki Haley. Volatile yet clueless Vivek Ramaswamy finished behind Haley, suspended his campaign and pledged his support to Trump; dozens noticed.
What should catch our attention and upset us is how exclusive and exclusionary the Iowa GOP caucuses are. These county caucuses are not about driving turnout to mobilize voters to support the candidate of their choice. They are held at seven in the evening, keeping out those working evening shifts, those with small children at home who can’t get childcare, the elderly who don’t drive at night and can’t get a ride.
With this limited pool of voters, the ground game changes for the candidates. You can cherry pick your voters, and also work the county party apparatus to maximize your favorability with the folks running the caucus.
What this also means is that the caucus votes do not reflect the vote of the average Republican voter. It reflects the votes of the diehard Republican voters – the most polarized Republicans. This is where Trump and DeSantis find most of their support.
But there are many more voters than the farthest right of the right. And the problem with Iowa setting a tone for further primaries is that Trump and DeSantis have less chance of beating Biden than Haley, according to the latest polling.
The latest CBS News/YouGov poll from this month has Haley beating Biden by eight percentage points, a safe and healthy lead that GOP leaders should be paying attention to. DeSantis and Trump poll at three- and two-point advantages, respectively, also placing them within the limits of error – essentially, a dead heat.
Simply said, If Iowa is any indicator, Republicans risk losing the election because their most winnable candidate is getting lost in the MAGA shuffle.
In such a scenario, DeSantis is the Great Spoiler. Running as Diet Trump, he offers little in new ideas but simply more competent governing in deploying those ideas. And he can’t win the primary, while Haley still has opportunity in New Hampshire and South Carolina to gain momentum.
I have a theory.
I think it entirely possible that DeSantis has cut a political drug deal with Trump to keep Haley at bay until Super Tuesday. If DeSantis can pull enough delegates in New Hampshire, and more importantly in Haley’s home state of South Carolina, it could mean a death knell for Haley’s momentum and a vice-president slot or major Cabinet post for DeSantis.
If it plays out like this, it will be a shame. The Economist just compared former President Trump and President Biden in ten graphs, showing indicators across their terms such as inflation, employment, deficit spending, migration apprehensions at the border, and oil production.
Trump won on two comparisons (border security and inflation) and Biden on five (energy transition, employment, stock market, and murder rate). They are roughly even on individual earnings, deficit spending, and approval ratings. Both men have spent most of their terms below a 50% approval rating for their performance in office.
Put another way, in November we get to choose between two guys most of us don’t even like, nominated via a momentum created by a minority of the minority. Surely we should be able to do better than this?
Merritt Hamilton Allen is a PR executive and former Navy officer. She appeared regularly as a panelist on NM PBS and is a frequent guest on News Radio KKOB. A Republican, she lives amicably with her Democratic husband north of I-40 where they run one head of dog, and two of cat. She can be reached at news.ind.merritt@gmail.com.