By Gerry Shih, Shira Rubin · The Washington Post (c) 2025
JERUSALEM – On Wednesday, leaders around the world, from President Joe Biden to President-elect Donald Trump to Hamas politician Khalil al-Hayya, celebrated a hard-won ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.
Notably silent has been Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who said he would not immediately issue an official statement until details of the ceasefire were finalized.
Netanyahu’s reticence reflected the dueling political challenges that now face the Israeli leader – and that may imperil a lasting truce. Even as his negotiators work round-the-clock to hammer out details of the hostages-for-prisoners exchange with Hamas, Netanyahu has been working simultaneously to placate his far-right political allies – who have decried the ceasefire as premature – and to prevent them from withdrawing from his coalition government and forcing fresh elections.
For now, Netanyahu is widely expected to wrap up negotiations with Hamas in Qatar and corral enough votes to ratify the ceasefire back home. But the result of his negotiations with domestic allies, according to Israeli officials and analysts, may be a promise that Israel will return to fighting after several weeks.
This week, Netanyahu came under fierce criticism from two key allies, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who threatened to withdraw from the Netanyahu-led government. Smotrich and Ben Gvir argued that the ceasefire is dangerous, involving the release of hundreds of militant Palestinians to Gaza before Israel has had the chance to declare “total victory” over Hamas in the enclave. Withdrawing troops now, moreover, would foreclose the prospect of Israel occupying the territory long-term – an aim they have championed for months.
Smotrich said in a statement Wednesday night that his Religious Zionism party would remain in Netanyahu’s government on the condition that the war would resume “with great strength, on a full scale, and in a new form, until we achieve complete victory.”
In a speech he posted on X this week, Ben Gvir boasted that he had successfully blocked previous attempts to reach a ceasefire agreement by threatening to quit, but he said he would not be able to block it this time. Instead, the Jewish Power party leader urged Smotrich to join him and topple Netanyahu’s government if he pushed the deal through.
Behind closed doors, Netanyahu has been promising his far-right allies that the war could resume after the first, 42-day phase of the ceasefire, when Hamas is to release 33 hostages in exchange for the release of more than 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, according to three people familiar with the negotiations.
Gayil Talshir, a political scientist from Hebrew University who is familiar with the negotiations in Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, said Netanyahu focused his efforts in recent days on persuading Smotrich to stay. Smotrich holds a special position in the Defense Ministry and is in control of a government agency that oversees policy in Gaza and the West Bank. Talshir said Netanyahu has feared alienating Smotrich, who represents a small but politically critical base.
“In the eyes of Netanyahu, [Smotrich] is the mightiest because he could bring down the coalition, and so Netanyahu is promising to Smotrich and Ben Gvir that Israel will return to war after the first phase,” Talshir said. “More importantly, he has made promises about Israeli sovereignty in both the West Bank and ensuring a military takeover of humanitarian aid in Gaza. That will mean that Israeli civilians need to enter Gaza, which is the beginning of Israeli occupation of Gaza.”
Before the ceasefire was announced this week, a senior Israeli official emphasized that the agreement for the first phase would not be a comprehensive peace deal but a “ceasefire, many weeks long.” Incoming Trump administration officials have also said they would back Netanyahu if he returned to fighting.
“We’ve made it very clear to the Israelis, and I want the people of Israel to hear me on this: If they need to go back in, we’re with them,” Michael Waltz, Trump’s designated national security adviser, said Wednesday on Fox News. “If Hamas doesn’t live up to the terms of this agreement, we are with them.”
Another line of argument that Netanyahu took with Smotrich was that they “need Trump on our side” if they want to pursue other parts of their agenda, said an Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the closed-door negotiations. Trump has privately and publicly declared his wish to see Netanyahu and Hamas sign a ceasefire agreement before his Jan. 20 inauguration, a message that was repeated this week by Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, in Jerusalem.
Smotrich’s political base hopes it will receive Trump’s support to eventually annex the West Bank and potentially pursue reoccupation of Gaza. The idea of currying favor with Trump now by supporting the deal, said the Israeli official, gives “Smotrich a justification for staying in the government after Ben Gvir pushed him to leave.”
Polling on Wednesday showed that 70 percent of Israelis support some kind of hostage deal with Hamas and that Netanyahu’s personal popularity will be boosted by the ceasefire. But Dahlia Scheindlin, a political consultant and pollster in Tel Aviv, said that polls have shown that Smotrich’s popularity has waned among his supporters, and that if new elections are held, his Religious Zionism party may not win any seats in the Knesset.
Even so, Scheindlin said, it is possible that Smotrich and Ben Gvir may force the government’s collapse due to their profound ideological opposition to the ceasefire.
“Ever since this government was formed, each time the coalition shakes, it’s usually [Smotrich and Ben Gvir], and it’s always that same dilemma,” she said. “Would they stay in because they want their power, or would they leave to express their extremely powerful religious fundamentalism?”
While he tries to hold his government together, Netanyahu has recently been cobbling together other contingency plans. He has made overtures to Benny Gantz, a centrist who left Netanyahu’s war cabinet in June, and Mansour Abbas, an Arab-Israeli political kingmaker, said Talshir, the Hebrew University scholar.
While Netanyahu sought to sell the deal on Thursday, the negotiations with Hamas also appeared to hit snags in Qatar.
Netanyahu’s cabinet, which was scheduled to meet at 11 a.m. local time to ratify the ceasefire deal, did not convene and would not meet unless the differences were resolved, Israeli officials said. They accused Hamas of “reneging” on previously agreed details about which Palestinian prisoners would be released in the hostage exchange and insisted that Israeli troops will remain in the strategic Philadelphi Corridor.
In a message on social media, Hamas Political Bureau member Izzat al-Rishq said Hamas is committed to the ceasefire agreement, but he did not elaborate.
Amit Segal, a right-wing political commentator, said the delays in Doha were connected to Netanyahu’s talks with Smotrich, which were underway simultaneously. Smotrich has asked for assurances from Netanyahu that Israel would tighten the flow of humanitarian aid flowing into Gaza and maintain a military presence within the territory, Segal said.
Smotrich’s political party issued a statement Thursday demanding that Netanyahu “ensures a return to war to destroy Hamas … followed by a change in the approach to achieving a victory immediately after the first phase of the deal as a condition for the party’s continued participation in the government and coalition.”
“Smotrich is saying, ‘If you want to keep the government, I want to have a voice to decide how it goes,’” Segal said. “And that means resuming the war six weeks from now.”
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Lior Soroka in Tel Aviv contributed to this report.