The Bernalillo County Commission is scheduled to hear Tuesday from the author of a report that disputes the housing, population and job projections of the massive Santolina development planned for west of Albuquerque.
An analysis by the University of New Mexico’s Bureau of Business & Economic Research (BBER), commissioned by the New Mexico Legislature, found that projection data used from 2013 was “unrealistic” and “highly unlikely.” An initial development agreement with owner Western Albuquerque Land Holdings was approved by the county in 2015.
Santolina consists of 13,700 acres of undeveloped land — largely sand dunes and sagebrush — located west of the city in unincorporated Bernalillo County. It is near Interstate 40 and 98th Street, not far from the Metropolitan Detention Center and Sandia Speedway racing facility.
Consensus Planning, the Albuquerque firm that created the Santolina master plan, describes it as a future “mixed-use, self-sufficient community with a series of village areas planned for residential development, an urban center, a town center, and business and employment areas.”
However, to meet a 50-year full buildout goal, the project would need to annually generate 761 new housing units, 1,866 additional residents and 1,500 new jobs. The BBER analysis said more probable annual targets are far lower: 154 new housing units, 374 additional residents, and 240 new jobs.
“These data tell a story that statewide and local economic, employment, population, and housing growth has not exactly been robust, especially when compared to New Mexico peers in neighboring states,” BBER senior research scientist and author of the report, Julian Baca, said in a statement.
Santolina’s projections are important as the county calculates its potential tax revenue against likely costs to taxpayers. The Santolina tax increment development district (TIDD) allocates a portion of future tax revenues for reimbursement to developers for the cost of infrastructure. Further, commissioners are scheduled to discuss updates to the Albuquerque/Bernalillo County comprehensive plan March 19 – one that relies in part on Santolina’s projections. The plan seeks ways to incentivize economic development and job creation, streamline development reviews and approvals and promote sustainable development, among other goals.
‘We don’t support sprawl’
The project has been controversial from the beginning. The Contra Santolina Working Group, New Mexico Environmental Law Center (NMELC) and others say it will put pressure on an already fragile environment with a scarce water supply. Opponents also worry it will threaten traditional farming methods and the unique culture of Albuquerque’s South Valley.
“Santolina, the massive sprawl development still looming in our backyards, was a faulty Bernalillo County Commission decision back in 2015,” Virginia Necochea, NMELC executive director, said in a statement last week. “We urge the current commissioners to reanalyze Santolina keeping the recent BBER study in mind and make an informed decision based on current data that is more accurate and unbiased.”
Marcia Fernandez, a longtime member of Contra Santolina who said she’s been following the project for 10 years, said she’s not against the idea of development in general.
“‘Leave the sand dunes alone’ has never been our cry,” Fernandez told City Desk ABQ on Monday. “We just don’t support sprawl development and wish the county would revisit the master plan and development agreements that were based on old information.”
Fernandez said she’s hopeful the current slate of commissioners, many who weren’t involved in the 2015 development agreement, will consider the BBER’s findings.
“There seems to be a new process, a new feeling among these commissioners that they take data and facts seriously,” she said. “There’s a lot more transparency and willingness to involve the community. I sense there’s a new day at the county.”
The full BBER report — “Potential Impacts from Santolina Development” — is available here. A one-page executive summary is available here. More details about Santolina from Consensus Planning are here.
Editor’s note: this story has been updated to clarify the role of Consensus Planning.